What does -300 mean in betting?
-300 means you risk $300 to win $100, or $30 to win $10. The price says it wins 75.0% of the time, so you need to win more than 75.0% of your bets at -300 to make money.
In plain words
-300 is a heavy favorite. You put up $300 to win $100, so one loss wipes out the profit from 3 wins.
The price says it wins 75.0% of the time. That sounds safe, but it also says it loses about once every 4 tries, and at -300 you need 3 wins for every loss just to break even.
Heavy favorites feel like free money, and that is where bankrolls quietly leak: the win is small and the loss is big. Bet the same size you would on any other pick. A shorter price is not a bigger edge.
Where you see -300
In the NFL, a team favored by about a touchdown is often priced around -300 on the moneyline. You also see it on alternate lines, where you buy points to make a spread easier to cover.
100 bets at -300
| Win rate | Wins in 100 | Result on 100 bets of $10 |
|---|---|---|
| 72.0% | 72 | -$40 |
| 75.0% (break-even) | 75 | $0 |
| 78.0% | 78 | +$40 |
Three points above break-even turns 100 bets of $10 at -300 into about $40 of profit; three points below loses about the same. The edge is the few points, not the pick.
Prices next to -300
| Price | Chance | $10 wins | Bet to win $100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| -500 | 83.3% | $2 | $500 |
| -400 | 80.0% | $2.50 | $400 |
| -300 | 75.0% | $3.33 | $300 |
| -250 | 71.4% | $4 | $250 |
| -200 | 66.7% | $5 | $200 |
| -175 | 63.6% | $5.71 | $175 |
One step better for you, -250 pays $6.67 more than -300 on every $100 bet that wins.
Convert -300 or any other price, see what a ticket pays, or get a suggested bet size for your bankroll.
Questions
What does -300 mean in betting?
-300 means you risk $300 to win $100, or $30 to win $10. The price says it wins 75.0% of the time, so you need to win more than 75.0% of your bets at -300 to make money.
How much does a $10 bet win at -300?
$3.33 in profit. You get $13.33 back in total: your $10 plus the win. A $100 bet wins $33.33.
What win rate do I need at -300?
More than 75.0% to make money over time. That is the price's implied chance, also called the break-even rate.
What is -300 in decimal odds?
1.33. A $1 bet returns $1.33 in total. As a fraction it is 1/3.
Is -300 a safe bet?
No bet is safe. By its own price, -300 loses about 25.0% of the time, roughly once in every 4 bets, and each loss costs $300 for every $100 you hoped to win.
One pick a day, free, with its price, the book and a suggested bet size, posted at least 30 minutes before the game. Every result stays public.
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