What does -400 mean in betting?
-400 means you risk $400 to win $100, or $40 to win $10. The price says it wins 80.0% of the time, so you need to win more than 80.0% of your bets at -400 to make money.
In plain words
-400 is a heavy favorite. You put up $400 to win $100, so one loss wipes out the profit from 4 wins.
The price says it wins 80.0% of the time. That sounds safe, but it also says it loses about once every 5 tries, and at -400 you need 4 wins for every loss just to break even.
Heavy favorites feel like free money, and that is where bankrolls quietly leak: the win is small and the loss is big. Bet the same size you would on any other pick. A shorter price is not a bigger edge.
Where you see -400
Clear moneyline favorites. In basketball, a team favored by about nine or ten points is often near -400; in soccer, a top club at home against one of the worst.
100 bets at -400
| Win rate | Wins in 100 | Result on 100 bets of $10 |
|---|---|---|
| 77.0% | 77 | -$37.50 |
| 80.0% (break-even) | 80 | $0 |
| 83.0% | 83 | +$37.50 |
Three points above break-even turns 100 bets of $10 at -400 into about $37.50 of profit; three points below loses about the same. The edge is the few points, not the pick.
Prices next to -400
| Price | Chance | $10 wins | Bet to win $100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| -500 | 83.3% | $2 | $500 |
| -400 | 80.0% | $2.50 | $400 |
| -300 | 75.0% | $3.33 | $300 |
| -250 | 71.4% | $4 | $250 |
| -200 | 66.7% | $5 | $200 |
One step better for you, -300 pays $8.33 more than -400 on every $100 bet that wins.
Convert -400 or any other price, see what a ticket pays, or get a suggested bet size for your bankroll.
Questions
What does -400 mean in betting?
-400 means you risk $400 to win $100, or $40 to win $10. The price says it wins 80.0% of the time, so you need to win more than 80.0% of your bets at -400 to make money.
How much does a $10 bet win at -400?
$2.50 in profit. You get $12.50 back in total: your $10 plus the win. A $100 bet wins $25.
What win rate do I need at -400?
More than 80.0% to make money over time. That is the price's implied chance, also called the break-even rate.
What is -400 in decimal odds?
1.25. A $1 bet returns $1.25 in total. As a fraction it is 1/4.
Is -400 a safe bet?
No bet is safe. By its own price, -400 loses about 20.0% of the time, roughly once in every 5 bets, and each loss costs $400 for every $100 you hoped to win.
One pick a day, free, with its price, the book and a suggested bet size, posted at least 30 minutes before the game. Every result stays public.
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