What are the NFL key numbers, 3 and 7?

Key numbers are the final margins that happen most. In the NFL, 3 and 7 land more than any other, because of field goals and touchdowns. A spread that crosses one is worth more.

Why 3 and 7

A field goal is 3 points and a touchdown with the extra point is 7. Games end by exactly 3 points roughly 8% of the time and by exactly 7 roughly 6%, more than any other margin. Other common ones are 6, 10 and 14.

What it does to your bet

Say a team is -3. A 3-point win is a push: your stake comes back. At -2.5 that same win cashes; at -3.5 it loses. So going from -3.5 to -2.5 crosses the most common margin there is.

Price the half point

A half point through 3 or 7 is worth more than a half point anywhere else, so it can be worth paying a little extra price for it, and it is a poor trade to give it up cheaply. Bets that took -2.5 and see the line close at -3.5 beat the closing line; see closing line value.

Be careful with it

These are rough rates. They shift with scoring trends and rule changes, and a bet needs an edge, not just a key number.

Questions

Today's games

Keep reading