Closing line value (CLV) is the difference between the price you bet and the price when the game started. If you bet a team at -105 and it closed at -120, you beat the closing line and had positive CLV.
The closing line is the market's final answer after all the money has come in. It is the most accurate price of the day. If you bet at a better price than the close, you had a better number than the market's best guess, whatever the game then did.
Monday, 11 AM: Bills -2.5 at -105. Kickoff: Bills -3.5 at -110. You beat the close by a point and five cents. Whether the Bills cover or not, you bought low. Do that often enough and the results follow.
Results take hundreds of bets to mean anything, because good bets lose often. Closing line value shows up in dozens. That is why sportsbooks limit accounts that beat the close consistently: it predicts who they will be paying over time.
Yes, and often. One night proves nothing either way. Over a season, beating the close by a couple of percent on average is where the profit comes from.
Every pick we post is logged with its price, and the closing price is recorded at game time. The share of picks that beat the close and the average closing line value are on our Results tab, updated after each game, next to the win rate.
Beating the close more than half the time and averaging a gain of 1% to 3% is strong. Most bettors are negative without knowing it.
No. It is the best early predictor of winning that exists, but any stretch of bets can lose while beating the close.
Because a bettor who beats the close is one they expect to pay out to over time, so they limit those accounts.
Today's free pick is on the site with its price and its bet size, at least 30 minutes before the game. Every result is public.
See today's free pickBooks we use: FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars.
Data-based predictions for entertainment only. Not financial or gambling advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Legal · How it works · Learn · All games