Spread, moneyline or total?

A moneyline bet is on who wins. A spread bet is on the margin of victory. A total is on the combined score, over or under a number. The right one is whichever has the best price for its chance.

The three bets on one game

Chiefs at Raiders. The board shows Chiefs -7 (-110), Chiefs moneyline -320, Raiders +260, and a total of 47.5.

• Moneyline: Chiefs to win, any score. -320 means you risk $320 to win $100. Raiders to win pays $260 on $100.
• Spread: Chiefs -7 means the Chiefs must win by 8 or more. Raiders +7 means they can lose by 6 or less, or win. A 7-point Chiefs win is a push: the bet is refunded.
• Total: over 47.5 wins if both teams score 48 or more combined. Under 47.5 wins at 47 or fewer. Who wins the game does not matter.

When each one is better

Moneyline when you think the favorite wins but the margin is a coin flip, or when a dog has a real chance to win outright. Spread when you have a view on the margin, not just the winner. Total when the story of the game is pace and defense rather than who is better.

The one rule

None of the three is the smart bet by itself. Each is a chance with a price attached. The Chiefs at -320 need to win about 76% of the time to break even. The Chiefs -7 at -110 need to cover 52.4% of the time. Compare the chance to the price for each, and take the one where the price is most generous. That is what +EV means.

Never bet both sides

Over and under on the same game, or both teams on the moneyline, only guarantees you pay the book's cut twice. One side, one price, one size.

What we pick

All three, whenever the price is wrong by enough. Our record by kind of bet is on the Results tab, so you can see which ones have earned their place.

Questions

What is a push?

The result lands exactly on the number, like a 7-point win against a 7-point spread. The bet is refunded, not lost.

Why is the spread -110 on both sides?

The number is set so each side is about a coin flip, and -110 on both carries the book's cut. When one side moves to -115 or -105 the book is leaning.

Is the moneyline better for favorites?

Sometimes. A favorite at -320 must win 76% of the time to break even; the same team on the spread at -110 needs 52.4%. Compare the chances, not the names.

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