How to tell if a sports picks service is legit

A legitimate picks service posts every pick before the game with its price and bet size, keeps every loss on the record, and never promises wins. If you cannot check the losses, you cannot trust the wins.

1. Timestamps before the game

Look for: every pick posted with a time, before the game started, somewhere you can scroll back to. Red flag: picks that appear after the result, or a "record" with no picks behind it.

2. Losses on the record

Look for: the losing picks still up, next to the winners. Red flag: deleted slips, a feed of nothing but cashed tickets, a record that restarts every time it goes cold.

3. The price with the pick

Look for: the odds on every pick. A side at -110 and the same side at -150 are different bets. Red flag: "Chiefs" with no price. It cannot be checked, and it cannot be copied at the same number.

4. A bet size

Look for: units on every pick, with a stated cap. Red flag: sizes that swing from 1 to 10 units, which is how a losing record gets dressed up as a winning one.

5. A record by game date, as a file

Look for: a table or a download you can add up yourself. Red flag: screenshots. A screenshot shows what someone chose to show.

6. No promised wins

Look for: plain talk about losing: a 55% bet loses 45% of the time. Red flag: "lock", "guaranteed", "insider", "can't lose". Nobody in this business has certainty to sell.

7. A refund tied to something you can check

Look for: a refund that depends on a public number. Red flag: a "money-back guarantee" that depends on their say-so. Watchdogs report those are rarely paid.

How Mammoth Picks does on the seven

• Every pick posts at least 30 minutes before the game, with its price and its bet size. No pick is ever more than five units.
• Every loss stays on the Results tab, graded by game date, with a CSV download.
• The closing line is recorded for every pick, so you can see whether the price was right even on the nights the result was not. (What closing line value is.)
• No locks. No promised wins. A 55% bet loses 45% of the time, and we say so.
• The Green Month Guarantee: if our posted picks finish a calendar month below zero units, that month's subscription is refunded, with one tap, automatically. The number it depends on is public.

Run the seven checks on us too. That is what they are for.

Questions

Is a high win rate a good sign?

Not by itself. The price decides: a 60% record at -200 loses money, and a 45% record at +150 makes it. Ask for the prices and the sizes before the win rate.

Are free picks worth following?

If they pass the same checks. A free pick with a price, a size and a result on the record is a real pick. One without them is an advertisement.

What is a tout?

Someone who sells picks and gets paid whether they win or lose. The word is used for the ones who hide their losses and sell certainty.

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